Monday, June 27, 2011

季辛吉是中國通嗎? (Book Review: On China by Henry Kissinger)

如果是, 他怎麼不拿 新華社, 中評網, 中央社, 聯合,中時, TVBS 來看中國文化的最顯著: 指鹿為馬, 卻談什麼孔子孫子:
According to Kissinger there are four key elements to understanding the Chinese mind: Confucianism ("a single, universal, generally applicable truth as the standard of individual conduct and social cohesion"); Sun Tzu (outsmarting: good; direct conflict: bad); ...
或者突顯中國人的特性: 不公平, 不講道理 (恨日本人欺負他們; 但是中國人欺負台灣人, 突搏人好得很.)
Several other episodes since have combined—rightly or wrongly, as Kissinger might put it—to turn Chinese popular opinion against America: Tiananmen Square;...

Kissinger recounts a chilly moment when, in the wake of the Tiananmen Square massacre, Deng tells him that overreaction by the U.S. "could even lead to war." More chilling were Mao's repeated, almost gleeful musings about the prospect of nuclear war. "If the imperialists unleash war on us," Kissinger recalls him saying, "we may lose more than three hundred million people. So what? War is war. The years will pass, and we'll get to work producing more babies than ever before."
You might like to read also: 美國智庫對中國人的15條評論, an addendum 
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Book Review: On China by Henry Kissinger

The mandarin emeritus sees China's future in its very ancient past. Christopher Buckley reviews

On China
By Henry Kissinger
Penguin Press; 608pp; $36


Oh, warm and fuzzy China: torturing and jailing dissidents, hacking into Gmail, cozying up to the worst regimes on earth, refusing to float the renminbi, spewing fluorocarbons into the ozone, building up its navy, and stealing military secrets—all while enabling America's fiscal incontinence by buying all those T-bills. The $1.1 trillion question at the start of what's been called "The Chinese Century" is simple: Friend or enemy? Frenemy?

While Henry Kissinger doesn't quote Mario Puzo, Don Corleone's maxim, "Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer," echoes throughout his grand, sweeping tutorial, On China. Kissinger has been the go-to China wise man since his first secret meeting there in 1971. And in the intervening decades, he's made 50-odd trips back, often carrying critical messages between leaders, defusing crises, or pleading with each side to understand the other's position. His perennial ambassadorship-at-large puts readers right in the room with Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Hu Jintao.

It also overflows with a lifetime of privileged observations. Here's a great one: Why did China invade Vietnam in 1979? To "teach it a lesson," Kissinger writes, for its border clashes with the Cambodian Khmer Rouge. But when the Soviet Union failed to come to Vietnam's aid, China concluded it had "touched the Tiger's buttocks" with impunity, he writes. "In retrospect," Kissinger explains, "Moscow's relative passivity ... can be seen as the first symptom of the decline of the Soviet Union. One wonders whether the Soviets' decision a year later to intervene in Afghanistan was prompted in part by an attempt to compensate for their ineffectuality in supporting Vietnam against the Chinese." As such, Kissinger asserts, the 1979 clash "can be considered a turning point of the Cold War, though it was not fully understood as such at the time." Of course! Just the proverbial game of dominoes—with the pieces very widely separated. As for the psychology behind China's extraordinary death toll in Vietnam, more on that in a minute.

While Kissinger can appear to be an apologist for—or explainer-away of—Chinese un-fuzzy behavior, he demonstrates a profound understanding of the impulses behind that behavior. And those impulses, he believes, go back many thousands of years. During a meeting in the 1990s, then-President Jiang Zemin wryly remarked to Kissinger that 78 generations had elapsed since Confucius died in 449 BC. By my count, there have been eight since the Declaration of Independence. Sort of puts things in perspective

According to Kissinger there are four key elements to understanding the Chinese mind: Confucianism ("a single, universal, generally applicable truth as the standard of individual conduct and social cohesion"); Sun Tzu (outsmarting: good; direct conflict: bad); an ancient board game called wei qi (which stresses "the protracted campaign"); and China's "century of humiliation" in the 1800s (karma's a you-know-what, Imperialists!). Actually, make that five: Wei Yuan—a 19th century midranking Confucian mandarin—developed the Chinese concept of "barbarian management," which was at the core of Mao's diplomacy with the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Now if only China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs would consider changing its name to the Office of Barbarian Management.

No, sorry, make that six elements: overwhelming fear of internal disorder or chaos. The resulting gestalt is absolute imperviousness to foreign pressure. Kissinger recounts a chilly moment when, in the wake of the Tiananmen Square massacre, Deng tells him that overreaction by the U.S. "could even lead to war." More chilling were Mao's repeated, almost gleeful musings about the prospect of nuclear war. "If the imperialists unleash war on us," Kissinger recalls him saying, "we may lose more than three hundred million people. So what? War is war. The years will pass, and we'll get to work producing more babies than ever before." While those grim and sincere words sound as though they came from the last scene of Dr. Strangelove, Kissinger reminds us that, during the first Taiwan Strait confrontation in 1955, it was the U.S. that threatened to use nukes.

Several other episodes since have combined—rightly or wrongly, as Kissinger might put it—to turn Chinese popular opinion against America: Tiananmen Square; the accidental 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade; and the Hainan incident in 2001, when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. reconnaissance plane and precipitated George W. Bush's first foreign policy crisis. Then there are more recent, obvious events. The collapse of the American and European financial markets, in 2007 and 2008, which stripped much of the luster off our image as the global economic leaders And that latter year in Beijing, when the world's Olympic athletes gathered in a proxy celebration of China's arrival as Washington coped with a distressed Wall Street, two quagmire wars, and three ailing auto companies.

Is Kissinger optimistic about future relations between the U.S. and China? In a word, yes and no. No, because of a disturbing, emergent "martial spirit" that envisions conflict with the U.S. as an inevitable consequence of China's rise—much as the Kaiser's naval buildup led to World War I. In this Chinese view, the U.S. is not so much Mao's famous "paper tiger" but, Kissinger writes, "an old cucumber painted green." In retrospect, I think I prefer being a paper tiger.

On a more upbeat note, Kissinger explains that despite its unprecedented economic ascendance, China has one or two problems of its own. Its economy must grow annually by 7 percent—a goal that would leave any Western industrialized nation gasping—or face the much-dreaded internal unrest. Corruption, meanwhile, is deeply embedded in the economic culture. "It is one of history's ironies," he writes, "that Communism, advertised as bringing a classless society, tended to breed a privileged class of feudal proportions." Then there is China's rapidly aging population, which may dwarf our own impending Social Security crisis.

Yet the Chinese may be better equipped, psychologically and philosophically, to withstand the coming shocks than the rest of us. A country that has endured 4,000 years of uncounted wars and upheavals, through the Taiping Rebellion of the 1850s (tens of millions killed), and man-made calamities such as Mao's Great Leap Forward (an additional 20 million) and the Cultural Revolution, is nothing if not resilient. Sun Tzu coined a term shi, which roughly translates to "the art of understanding matters in flux." Writes Kissinger: "A turbulent history has taught Chinese leaders that not every problem has a solution." In other words, shi happens.

It's hard to imagine a U.S. President holding such a view, much less expressing it out loud. But by the time one reaches the far shore of this essential book, there's little doubt that Henry Kissinger, historian and maker of history, Nixon consigliere, and Secretary of Barbarian Management, also takes the long view. Perhaps, from the heights on which he perches, it may be, for better or worse, the only view.



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Saturday, June 18, 2011

论中国文化的反人性本质

作 為一種精神產物,思想觀念,“中國文化”從一開始就是反人性的,其具備神秘主義,專制,反智,愚民,暴力傾向等特徵。當然,在上古時代,並不是只有“中國 文化”才具備這些特徵,但是只有“中國文化”,才在以後幾千年裏將這些特徵發揮到了登峰造極的地步,並且完全沒有自新的能力,完全陷入惡性的閉環,一直到 今天。 其完全是一種早就應該被歷史淘汰的有害產物。
See 论中国文化的反人性本质 .

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

21世紀的中國將軍: 無論共軍, 國軍 都是中國軍隊

, 無論共軍、國軍,都是中國軍隊
軍是中國共產黨的軍隊; 國軍是中國國民黨的軍隊.  無論共軍、國軍 都只是黨的軍隊.  不是國家的軍隊. 

為什麼中國將軍說
無論共軍、國軍,都是中國軍隊 ?
因為中國共產黨和中國國民黨都把國家當做黨的財產, 是謂黨國!

  1. [时事聚焦]台退役将领称台军共军都是中国军队马英九:会予谴责(精彩罗三 ...

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    2011年6月8日 ... 李贵发说:我的了解是,夏瀛洲这次到大陆参加这个活动,并没有发言,就是报纸上所登的这个“无论共军国军都是中国军队”,不是他讲的.
    taiwan.dwnews.com/news/2011-06-08/57786816.html

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    2011年6月8日 ... 李貴发說:我的了解是,夏瀛洲這次到大陸參加這個活動,并沒有 ...
    taiwan.dwnews.com/big5/news/2011-06-08/57786816.html

  6. 台退役上将:今后不要再分什么国军共军,我们都是中国军队。| 台湾万象 ...

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    www.fyjs.cn/bbs/htm_data/254/1106/340481.html - 頁庫存檔

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Monday, June 6, 2011

台灣人20年全面塑化

即使發生像塑化劑和三聚氫銨這樣滅絕自己子孫的事件, 中國人繼續對暴政保持沈默, 對中國文化(像筷子和粽子)讚賞有加.  在台灣的中國人會繼續在選舉時用他的選票來唾棄民主法治, 支持暴政.
one of Taiwan's leading chemicals company used a food additive on a dangerous scale over two decades, threatening the health of innumerable children. ...
And, closely resembling the 2008 scandal in which mainland Chinese company Sanlu added melamine, banned for use in foodstuffs, to baby powder to indicate higher levels of protein, the main victims in the Taiwan case are young children...
Asia Times: Taiwan food scare 'dates back decades' 
By Jens Kastner

TAIPEI - A range of Taiwanese-made food products have been banned in mainland China and South Korea, and recalled in the Philippines, after the discovery that one of Taiwan's leading chemicals company used a food additive on a dangerous scale over two decades, threatening the health of innumerable children. Products involved are also shipped to the United States.

The scandal, involving the use of industrial plasticizer bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) in beverages, jams, syrups, jellies, calcium supplements, multivitamin tablets and other products, recalls the 2008 Chinese melamine scandal in terms of corporate greed and the risk posed to children's health.

Plasticizers such as DEHP are additives that increase a material's plasticity and are used in production of all sorts of useful things, such as leather goods, rainwear, flooring, wiring and cable, food packaging materials and children's toys. Last month, Taiwanese inspectors discovered that Yu Shen Chemical Co, the island's largest emulsifier supplier added DEHP to its clouding agent on a large scale.

Clouding agents, formulated with palm oil or gum arabic, are used to make processed foods look more appealing. When formulated with plasticizers such as DEHP, instead of with expensive palm oil, what's eaten and drunk looks even more tempting, and the chemical furthermore comes with the handy feature that it significantly extends shelf life. The downside to the scam, however, could hardly be any steeper: carcinogen in each contaminated unit inspected by the Taiwanese authorities topped 600 parts per million, exceeding by far the allowable daily intake of the chemical.

And, closely resembling the 2008 scandal in which mainland Chinese company Sanlu added melamine, banned for use in foodstuffs, to baby powder to indicate higher levels of protein, the main victims in the Taiwan case are young children.

Children who consume beverages contaminated with DEHP on a long-term basis are eight times more at risk of developing problems with their reproductive system. The males are more likely to suffer from feminization and shrinking of the penis and testicles when they become adults, girls are facing the prospect of premature development of their sexual organs. Thyroid dysfunction and fertility problems threaten these children later in life.

Another shocking aspect of the worldwide unprecedented DEHP scam is its duration: insiders told investigators that similar practices have been going on for as long as two decades.

Unsurprisingly, the revelations have led to panic among Taiwan's public and government. After an army of inspectors descended on the island's businesses that produce or sell food stuffs, including clinics and pharmacies, the scale of the scandal has become ever more shocking.

  • Prosecutors allege that Yu Shen purchased as much as five tonnes of DEHP every month to make flavor and food coloring agents, selling the products to chemical and food processing factories, as well as to bakeries and pastry shops.
  • A total of 130 food products were confirmed by the Food and Drug Administration to contain DEHP, while 95 manufacturers were found to have used the banned ingredient.
  • A total of 244 ingredient-manufacturing companies, including several renowned brands, were found to have sourced clouding agents from Yu Sheng and Pin Han Perfumery Co, another emulsifier supplier alleged to have carried out a similar scam.
  • A total of 40,000 kilograms of juice and jam, 980,000 bottles of tea drinks and more than 2,000 boxes of powdered probiotic products have been recalled. 
  • 127.5 barrels of emulsifiers have been confiscated. 
  • In Taipei, the sale of 3,448 products for which businesses could not produce certificates was suspended by inspectors.
  • The island's four major convenience store operators - President Chain Store Corp, FamilyMart, OK-Mart and Hi-Life - have pulled all sports drinks from their shelves.

The problem is not limited to Taiwan. The island's DEHP-tainted stuff had been shipped to the United States, mainland China, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Vietnam. After the Department of Health informed health authorities in these countries, Presidential Office spokesman Fang Chiang Tai-chi stated: "The incident has not only caused great public concern, but will also affect the economy and have a negative impact on Taiwan's international reputation."

In terms of direct outfall, his statement at first glance appears to be no exaggeration. Companies are claiming their business has shrunk by 20% due to the scandal. Investors are turning away from food stocks and popular night markets, important for the tourism sector, have also seen sales decline significantly.

Taiwanese beverages, jams, syrups, jellies and other products suspected of DEHP contamination have been banned by South Korea and mainland China, and Manila has ordered an extensive recall of Taiwanese-made food and drink products.

Even so, while desperate Taiwanese parents line up at laboratories, carrying with them the products their children have been sipping for years, Taiwan's food and beverage industry accounts for a mere 4% of the island's domestic manufacturing output, which in turn contributes to about 25% of gross domestic product. In terms of exports, prepared food brought in only US$1.07 billion in 2010, and cosmetics and supplements are not even listed among Taiwan's 16 major export goods.

"The most damage will be done to the catering industry, manufacturers of food and beverages, convenience stores and, for a smaller part, also the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industry," Hu Sheng-Cheng, an academic at Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics, told Asia Times Online. Hu likened the DEHP scandal to a small-to-medium-sized typhoon in terms of economic impact.

"Those sectors' combined annual turnover accounts for NT$900 billion (US$30 billion), and only 10% of them is affected by the DEHP issue. If the scare lasts no longer than a month, the loss will be NT$8 billion to NT$10 billion."

Next to children's health, it is the public's trust in the government and in the "Made in Taiwan" brand that will be most negatively affected, he said.

And while some companies are being hit by the scandal, others can profit, according Huang Li-hsuan, professor at Taiwan's National Central University's Department of Economics.

"Because most of the products involved in the DEHP scandal are essentials and part of the Taiwanese public's daily lives, consumers' flexibility isn't high," Huang said. "So if we say DEHP decreases sales of this and that product, such as soft drinks, the public will use other related products like fresh juice, mineral water, and so on, as a substitute. In other words, in the short term, DEHP will make some businesses do worse but others better."

The danger of the DEHP scandal denting Taiwan's international reputation, as suggested by the Presidential Office spokesman, is also slim, according to Gary Rawnsley, a professor of Asian International Communications at the University of Leeds.

Rawnsley, an expert on public diplomacy and soft power, dismissed the notion that Taiwan's image abroad could suffer anywhere as much as China's in 2008 due to the melamine scandal.

"China's scandals have certainly been more prominent because they are Chinese and China garners far more media attention across the world than Taiwan", he said. The DEHP scandal "will have an effect on the manufacturers but not on Taiwan's image among the public around the world. The reason for that is it is not news here [in the UK] or elsewhere as far as I can see."

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.